Ahead of the Super 12s, neither Australia nor Sri Lanka was considered a favourite from the tough Group 1 to make it to the semi-finals. A win at Dubai will ensure one of them is strongly placed for the same.
A player-by-player comparison gives the superstar-laden Australia the edge, but the young, determined firebrand Sri Lankan side is gradually catching everyone’s attention. Apart from Pakistan, Sri Lanka have been the most exciting team to watch.
Wait, England fans. Domination was always expected from your team.
Sri Lanka may eventually run out of steam against the experienced sides. Or maybe not. A young Sri Lankan side with a determined leadership group, toppling the odds to create history in the spring of 1996, is one of our sport’s favourite chapters.
But one step at a time. Sri Lanka were among the sides crushed 3-0 by the Australian juggernaut during their phenomenal (a word you usually don’t associate with them in this format) run in T20Is in 2019/20.
However, since the return of cricket after the pandemic break, in mid-2020, both have been in awful form. Among the teams in the Super 12s, Australia’s win-loss ratio of 0.47 and Sri Lanka’s 0.78 during this phase are the worst.
Their overall head-to-head stands at 8-8, but Sri Lanka have a T20 World Cup to boast.
With four consecutive wins in the tournament, Sri Lanka have built solid momentum. The win over Bangladesh was a confidence booster considering the opponents had posted a big total and had a bowling attack suiting the Sharjah surface.
Charith Asalanka, Bhanuka Rajapaksa, Wanindu Hasaranga, Chamika Karunaratne, Lahiru Kumara and Maheesh Theekshana have been Sri Lanka’s stars since the 2014 T20 World Cup.
Mahela Jayawardene’s addition as consultant has helped them tactically. They have been relying more on data and match-ups. Captain Dasun Shanaka and coach Micky Arthur will need more of Jayawardene’s expertise against a top-quality bowling attack, comprising Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins and – if he recovers – Mitchell Starc.
If Theekshana is fit, he will walk into the XI. It is their bowling that makes Sri Lanka strong despite the batting firepower exhibited against Bangladesh. Considering dew being a spoiler, chasing will be preferred by both sides.
Sri Lanka’s likely XI
Kusal Perera (wk), Pathum Nissanka, Charith Asalanka, Avishka Fernando, Wanindu Hasaranga, Bhanuka Rajapaksa, Dasun Shanka (c), Chamika Karunaratne, Dushmantha Chameera, Lahiru Kumara, Maheesh Theekshana
ICC T20I Ranking: 9
Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins finally featured in a T20I together, but the association can be short-lived as Starc was seen limping off the ICC Academy after hurting his leg during training.
A doubtful starter, Starc’s absence could see the return of Kane Richardson or Nathan Ellis. Ashton Agar will also be a tempting proposition on a slow turner, and he adds value with the bat too.
The Sri Lankan spinners mostly turn the ball away from the right-handers. Stacking up the XI with more left-handed batters will be a wise call for Australia.
Australia’s likely XI
David Warner, Aaron Finch (c), Mitchell Marsh, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade (wk), Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc/Kane Richardson/Ashton Agar, Adam Zampa, Josh Hazlewood
ICC T20I Ranking: 6
Key match-ups
- Warner vs Chameera: Warner likes to hammer Sri Lanka. He averages 56 and strikes at 137 against them. He strikes at 153 against leg spin. However, for that, he needs to get past the Chameera, who has nine wickets against left-handers in 2021, averaging 15 and going at 5.5 an over. Meanwhile, Warner’s scores in the last five innings (including warm-up matches) are 14, 1, 0, 2 and 0.
- Smith/Marsh vs Hasaranga: Dominated by right-handers in their batting line-up, Australians do not fancy playing leg-spin. Smith strikes at 116 against leg-spin and Marsh 104, while 81% of Hasaranga’s T20I wickets are right-handers. He averages 12 against them at an economy rate of 5.8.
- Maxwell vs Kusal Perera: Apart from his batting form, Maxwell the opening bowler will continue to be key for Australia. He has bowled nine balls at Kusal Perera in international cricket, conceded 11, and dismissed him twice. Overall, against off-spin, Perera averages less than 20, striking at 119.
Prediction:
Toss will be critical to a team’s fortune. The IPL exposure in familiar conditions and overall experience gives Australia the edge.
Fantasy tips:
- Warner averages 56 against Sri Lanka. He is too good a player to continue his slump, and a big innings may be around the corner.
- Maxwell is a safe bet as captain since he will play a role with the ball too.
- Hasaranga or Kusal Perera can be vice-captain. Hasaranga plays as an all-rounder and strike bowler, whereas Perera will open and score points with his wicketkeeping.
Blitzpools Fantasy XI
Glenn Maxwell (c), Wanindu Hasaranga (vc), Charith Asalanka, Steve Smith, David Warner/Bhanuka Rajapaksa, Aaron Finch, Kusal Perera (wk), Maheesh Theekshana, Chamika Karunaratne, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc/Lahiru Kumara/Pat Cummins