It is a big game tonight, no doubt. It is also the day for the clichés and noise. Brace yourself for screaming anchors, across-the-border jingoism, new ad releases and social media wars. The final before the final. The mother of all battles.
Or is it?
India's growth as an all-format giant over the past decade has altered the balance between the two sides considerably. In the 2010s, India have enjoyed a 14-5 lead over Pakistan across formats. Most of the matches during this phase have not lived up to the hype and have rather been one-sided.
But exaggerations and hype around any India-Pakistan fixture spins money for everyone. Cricket is a relief point to the simmering tensions of the neighbouring nations. So let it be. After all, India and Pakistan matches are only restricted to major tournaments. And this is their first encounter in over two years.
India's 12-0 (seven in ODI World Cups, five in T20 World Cups including a tie-breaker win) record against Pakistan in the World Cups is their psychological boost.
The streak will end at some point. But already under fire for the lack of trophy wins, Virat Kohli will not want to be the Indian captain to bear its brunt. More than the opponent's prowess, living up to the gargantuan legacy adds pressure on the Indians.
Laden with superstars, India enter the T20 World Cup as one of the favourites. Pakistan, on the other hand, are a consistent unit that appears to be a side with a lot of promise.
Read more: India's T20 World Cup – SWOT | Pakistan's T20 World Cup – SWOT
While franchise cricket has made most players familiar with one another, it has not been the case with India and Pakistan. Indians do not play in the Pakistan Super League (PSL), and Pakistanis are not allowed in the Indian Premier League (IPL). The teams do not play bilateral matches either.
Only three Pakistanis from the current squad have played T20Is against India. Mohammad Hafeez and Shoaib Malik are obvious guesses, and Sarfaraz Ahmed is the third.
India's experience is well highlighted in the fact that eight of their players have played at least one T20I against Pakistan.
But that is probably not relevant, as the teams have not played a T20I against each other in five and a half years.
Since mid-2019, India won eight T20I series in a row until Sri Lanka overpowered a depleted edition of an already depleted side in July. Pakistan have won six of their nine T20I series, losing one in each of England and New Zealand and drawing one with England.
While India's primary focus in the past five years has been Test cricket, Pakistan have reigned most days (884 days) as the top-ranked T20I side. Their consistency is reflected in their win-loss ratio of 2.3 between the T20 World Cups, the highest for an ICC Full Member (excluding Afghanistan, who became a Full Member in 2017).
The Dubai International Stadium was once the home for Pakistan. Their last defeat at the venue came in November 2015. But while Pakistan claim to know the venue, the Indian cricketers have played many IPL matches here since 2020, and have the recency to their advantage.
India convincingly won both warm-up matches, against strong opponents – England and Australia. Pakistan, meanwhile, beat West Indies but lost to South Africa.
Key match-ups
- Rohit Sharma vs Shaheen Shah Afridi: Rohit averages 24 at a strike rate of 119 against left-arm pace in Powerplay overs in T20s. Afridi has picked 21 wickets in the first over in 61 outings.
- Virat Kohli vs Shadab Khan and Imad Wasim: Since 2020, Kohli's strike rate in the middle overs has been 115. The Pakistan spinners will look to get through their overs quickly by bowling at Kohli. On the other hand, Kohli will eye returning to his vintage form where he struck between 135-150.
- Babar Azam vs Bhuvneshwar Kumar: Bhuvneshwar, India's best Powerplay bowler, will eye Babar's wicket. Since 2020, Bhuvneshwar averages 26 in the Powerplay, at 5.6 an over, while Babar's Powerplay strike rate during this timeframe has been 115: he only goes on to make it count once he gets set.
- Fakhar Zaman vs R. Ashwin: Ashwin does not have fond memories of Fakhar from the 2017 Champions Trophy final. But while Fakhar strikes at 139 against off-spinners, Ashwin averages 24 against left-handers, going at 6.2 per over.
Key stats
- Pakistan have only beaten India once in T20Is. Their lone win came almost nine years ago
- Kohli (78*, 36* and 55*) hasn't been dismissed by Pakistan in T20 World Cups
- Rizwan and Babar have stitched three century stands in the format
- Dubai has 98 wins in chases when compared to 82 coming while batting first. In IPL 2021, only four teams (including Chennai Super Kings) who batted first won in Dubai while nine wins came in chases.
2021 T20 stats of key players
India
- Virat Kohli: 636 runs @ 39.8 | SR 128.2 | 50+ 6
- Rohit Sharma: 472 runs @ 29.5 | SR 130.4 | 50+ 2
- K.L. Rahul: 641 runs @ 45.8 | SR 133 | 50+ 6
- Suryakumar Yadav: 531 runs @ 24.1 | SR 150.4 | 50+ 4
- Ravindra Jadeja: 227 runs @ 75.7 | SR 145.5 | 50+ 1| 13 wickets @ 26.6 | Econ 7.1
- Jasprit Bumrah: 21 wickets @ 19.5 | Econ 7.4
- Bhuvneshwar Kumar: 19 wickets @ 31 | Econ 7
Pakistan
- Babar Azam: 1,363 runs @ 52.4 | SR 134.7 | 50+ 15
- Mohammad Rizwan: 1,462 runs @ 56.2 | SR 133.4 | 50+ 14
- Mohammad Hafeez: 556 runs @ 24.2 | SR 119.8 | 50+ 3 | 13 wickets @ 21.3 | Econ 6.1
- Imad Wasim: 323 runs @ 17 | SR 129.7 | 32 wickets @ 26.7 | Econ 7.3
- Shaheen Afridi 38 wickets @ 22.4 | Econ 8.2
- Hasan Ali 41 wickets @ 18.6 | Econ 7.6
Likely XIs:
India: K.L. Rahul, Rohit Sharma (vc), Virat Kohli (c), Suryakumar Yadav, Rishabh Pant (wk), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, R. Ashwin/Varun Chakravarthy, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
Pakistan: Babar Azam (c), Mohammad Rizwan (vc & wk), Fakhar Zaman, Mohammad Hafeez, Shoaib Malik, Asif Ali, Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Hasan Ali, Haris Rauf, Shaheen Afridi.
Prediction:
Rahul and Suryakumar may hold the key for India's batting, whereas Bumrah's X-factor will be crucial against Babar and Rizwan. With dew and recent results being a factor, the team winning the toss would want to field. India start the contest as undisputed favourites.
Fantasy tips:
- Rizwan's form makes him a must pick. Considering he's a wicketkeeper and may affect dismissals, he's a safe bet as a captain.
- When on form, few batters make it count as much as Rahul. He can be vice-captain of the side.
- Pick two of the big guns, Rohit, Kohli and Babar. Babar's form makes him a favourite pick, but Kohli's great record against Pakistan in the tournament cannot be ignored.
- Once the XI is out, stack your teams with wicket-taking options like Thakur, Shami and Rauf.
Blitzpools Fantasy XI
Mohammad Rizwan (c & wk), K.L. Rahul (vc), Babar Azam, Virat Kohli, Ravindra Jadeja, Imad Wasim, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah, Haris Rauf, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Shaheen Afridi