Five years ago, India kickstarted their home season with a win over New Zealand at Green Park, Kanpur. It was a momentous occasion as the hosts were playing their 500th Test match.
The win marked the beginning of a remarkable home season (2016/17) where India beat New Zealand 3-0, England 4-0, Bangladesh 1-0 and Australia 2-1 to consolidate the newly attained No.1 spot in the ICC Test rankings.
Half a decade later, India’s goal remains the same as they once again eye domination in Test cricket. The World Test Championship (WTC) has placed more importance on every Test match they play. And they are up against a New Zealand side with whom they have renewed their rivalry, and a lot has changed since 2016.
India vs New Zealand since 2016 (all formats)
- New Zealand beat India in the Group Match of 2016 T20 World Cup | Hosts: India
- India beat New Zealand 3-0 in Tests in 2016 | Hosts: India
- India beat New Zealand 3-2 in ODIs in 2016 | Hosts: India
- India beat New Zealand 2-1 in ODIs in 2017 | Hosts: India
- India beat New Zealand 2-1 in T20Is in 2017 (India registered their first-ever T20I win over New Zealand in this series) | Hosts: India
- India beat New Zealand 4-1 in ODIs in 2019 | Hosts: New Zealand
- New Zealand beat India 2-1 in T20Is in 2019 | Hosts: New Zealand
- New Zealand beat India in the 2019 ODI World Cup semi-final | Hosts: England
- India beat New Zealand 5-0 (2 wins in Super Overs) in T20Is in 2020 | Hosts: New Zealand
- New Zealand beat India 3-0 in ODIs in 2020 | Hosts: New Zealand
- New Zealand beat India 2-0 in Tests in 2020 (part of WTC) | Hosts: New Zealand
- New Zealand beat India in the 2021 WTC final | Hosts: England
- New Zealand beat India in the Group Match of 2021 T20 World Cup | Hosts: UAE
- India beat New Zealand 3-0 in T20Is in 2021 | Hosts: India
India have dominated the bilateral series, but New Zealand have won in the ICC tournaments.
The two Test matches matter a lot. These mark the start of the new WTC cycle for New Zealand, the World Test champions. Their last Test win in India was in 1988/89, when Virat Kohli was a few weeks old, and Kane Williamson was probably not even planned.
For inspiration, New Zealand will not have to look far. Less than a week before New Zealand won the Bombay Test in India in November 1988, the West Indies beat Australia in Brisbane. No team had breached Australia’s Gabba fort since until a second-, or third-, or even fourth-string India did the unthinkable in January.
To New Zealand’s advantage, India will be without six of their first picks – Kohli, Rohit Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami, Rishabh Pant and K.L. Rahul.
Now ranked the top Test side and proud owners of the Test mace, New Zealand start their next WTC cycle with the reputation of being the best all-condition side. Before winning in England, they drew 1-1 in Sri Lanka in 2019 and achieved the incredible feat of beating Pakistan in the UAE in 2018.
With historic Test wins in South Africa, Australia and England, combined with home domination, India can dispute the ‘best all-condition’ part. Also, less than six months back, India were on top of the Test Ranking, something they did for the major part since 2016.
Another tale spin for India?
Despite the absence of the big names, India will rely on spinners to turn the Test match. R. Ashwin will be united with Ravindra Jadeja. They had shared 16 out of the 20 New Zealand wickets to fall at Green Park in 2016/17. Add Axar Patel to the equation, and one can see why India will start as favourites, and why captain Ajinkya Rahane’s reference to home advantage reference in the pre-match press conference does not necessarily mean spinner-friendly surfaces.
Rahane himself will hope the series to bring him back the fortunes of 2016/17. After the Indore Test match, the 29th of his career, his batting average shot to an all-time high of 51.37. His 188 there, his eighth hundred, remains his career-best.
Since then, he has played 49 Tests, got four more hundreds and averaged just over 33. Jadeja has averaged over 41 in this timeframe.
No Indian specialist batter has played over 61 Tests averaging below Rahane (39.63). M.S. Dhoni (38.09) and Ravi Shastri (35.79) had other dominant roles to play.
To Rahane’s credit, he has got a string of good scores in the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy. If Shreyas Iyer capitalises on his Test debut and Rahane does not make it big in Kanpur, the selectors may have to take a big call.
Set to don the India Test cap no. 303, Iyer has played 54 First-Class matches, scoring 4,592 runs at 52.18, striking at a phenomenal 81.5 – but he has not played a First-Class match in almost three years. His last appearance was in the 2018/19 Irani Cup.
Trivia: Iyer was the best batter when New Zealand A toured India in 2017/18, scoring 190 runs in the two unofficial Tests at an average of 95, striking at 108.
India’s likely XI
Mayank Agarwal, Shubman Gill, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane (c), Shreyas Iyer, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), R. Ashwin, Axar Patel, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Siraj/Ishant Sharma
The Southee factor
It is the start of the post-B.J. Watling era for New Zealand, and they will rely on their trusted horses to bail them out of the spin trap. Ross Taylor’s experience and Tom Latham’s impressive technique against spin will be tested.
Meanwhile, Williamson’s record in India (an average of 35.46 from seven Tests) hardly demonstrates his prowess against spin. Still a teenager, he announced himself in the Test arena with a defiant century on Test debut in India in 2010/11. Maybe he will reflect on that.
The absence of Devon Conway and Trent Boult will be major blows to deal with, but one man India will be wary of is Tim Southee. The old warhorse seems to age like James Anderson and has been one of the finest pacers since 2018.
Of all bowlers with over 100 wickets since 2018, only Pat Cummins has a better bowling average (20) than Southee (21.9). The others on the list are Stuart Broad (23.8), Nathan Lyon (33.4), Anderson (23.2), Ashwin (22.1), Kagiso Rabada (23.2), Bumrah (22.8) and Shami (24.5).
Southee averages 25.1 in Asia. With movement on offer in the morning session, he, alongside Kyle Jamieson and Neil Wagner, he can be a considerable threat to the inexperienced and out-of-form Indian batting unit.
The big question mark will be – will they play three pacers or three spinners?
New Zealand’s likely XI
Tom Latham, Will Young, Kane Williamson (c), Ross Taylor, Henry Nicholls, Tom Blundell (wk), Mitchell Santner/Kyle Jamieson, Neil Wagner, Tim Southee, Will Somerville, Ajaz Patel.
Prediction:
If the wicket turns and the Indian spin trio live up to their reputation, the hosts are clear favourites.
Fantasy tips:
- Williamson will be hungry to improve his India record.
- With spin on the cards, it is a safe bet to go for Ashwin, Jadeja and Axar. Ajaz’s excellent record in the subcontinent makes him a good addition as well.
- Umesh has a brilliant record in Indian conditions, averaging 24.5.
Fantasy XI
Kane Williamson, Tom Latham, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Tom Blundell, Wriddhiman Saha, Axar Patel, Ajaz Patel, R. Ashwin (c), Ravindra Jadeja (vc), Umesh Yadav.