Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) had both failed to qualify for the Playoffs in the 2020 edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL). While the M.S. Dhoni-led CSK returned to their old habit, Eoin Morgan’s KKR scripted one of the most remarkable stories in the tournament’s history.
Having lost five of their seven matches in the Indian leg of the tournament, KKR won seven out their nine games in the UAE to enter their third IPL final. They did benefit from the four outings in Sharjah, conditions tailormade for their bowlers. Their balanced bowling unit has been the key to their run, so was the coming good of their non-stars, like Venkatesh Iyer, Rahul Tripathi, Nitish Rana, Shivam Mavi, and Lockie Ferguson.
Morgan has averaged under 12 this season, striking at 98. As a foreign player or even otherwise, he does not merit a place in the XI. However, a chunk of the credit for KKR’s resurgence goes to him and his analyst from England, Nathan Leamon.
“Morgan is a very analytical thinker. He’s got the ability to take the emotion out of the game when it’s time to plan for it or analyse it afterwards. He’s very clinical in that regard. He’s very sharp, very bright, and he’s been around cricket for a long time. If you’re an analyst, he’s your dream captain,” Leamon had told ESPNCricinfo in June.
Like England, the Leamon-Morgan partnership relied on data to excel (no Microsoft pun intended). Leamon provided Morgan with the data that the latter implemented to a great effect. Gautam Gambhir, the last, and only, IPL-winning captain for KKR, has been critical of this approach. But if KKR leap through the final hurdle on Friday, the method may just become the norm in white-ball cricket.
For CSK, openers Ruturaj Gaikwad and Faf du Plessis have amassed 1,150 runs between them this season. But the du Plessis vs Sunil Narine duel in T20s stand at two dismissals, average of 18.5 at a strike rate of 67. In other words, the equation is stacked in Narine's favour.
Gaikwad's strike rate in the Powerplay over is at 107. One cannot help but think whether he has has been peppered with enough short balls. He has fallen thrice to back-of-a-length deliveries that have hurried him, most recently against Anrich Nortje and Arshdeep Singh in their last two league matches.
Morgan and Leamon are aware of the same. It will not be a surprise if Narine and Ferguson bowl more in the Powerplay.
But what about Morgan’s runs? Had it not been for Tripathi’s penultimate-ball six on Wednesday, the swords would have been pointed at Morgan’s duck. The second Qualifier also exposed KKR’s brittle middle-order, handicapped by the prolonged poor form of Morgan and Dinesh Karthik.
What happens if Andre Russell is fit? Does he replace Shakib Al Hasan? Shall we see Morgan dropping himself and take up a role of a non-playing captain?
Dhoni has already made notes on the above.
Talking of captaincy and runs, Dhoni has won 10 out of 15 matches this season while contributing 114 runs at a strike rate of 107. While his numbers seem similar to Morgan's, Dhoni holds the recency advantage: his unbeaten six-ball 18 in the first Qualifier took his run tally to three figures and rekindled the vintage Dhoni conversation.
For someone playing his 10th IPL final (ninth as captain), this is just another game for Dhoni, who comes across as more instinctive than Morgan. While the Dhoni-Fleming think-tank plans just as meticulously, Dhoni often seems to be the more improvising of the two captains. CSK’s strength also lies in Dhoni’s ability to utilise his resources and bring out the best from an individual.
It will be folly to write Chennai off. Three-time IPL champions and five-time runners-up (including three very close defeats), CSK recovered from a disappointing IPL 2020 to be the favourite for the final.
Very different in team composition (including the fact that three Tamil players will turn up for KKR vs none for CSK), the two sides are also similar in the leadership matchups.
They are coached by former New Zealand captains – Fleming and McCullum – men celebrated for tactical acumen. Their captains have been poor with the bat but the decisions and selections have helped the teams reach where they are.
In a clash of two highly rated, World Cup-winning captains, the contest will be between come down to KKR’s bowling against CSK’s batting.
Both sides have won 50% of their matches in Dubai this season. Win-the-toss-and-bowl is likely to be the mantra as six of KKR’s seven wins in the UAE have come in chases, while CSK’s all five losses have come batting first.
Likely XIs
Chennai Super Kings: Ruturaj Gaikwad, Faf du Plessis, Moeen Ali, Robin Uthappa, Ambati Rayudu, Ravindra Jadeja, M.S. Dhoni (c & wk), Dwayne Bravo, Shardul Thakur, Deepak Chahar, Josh Hazlewood
Kolkata Knight Riders: Venkatesh Iyer, Shubman Gill, Nitish Rana, Rahul Tripathi, Eoin Morgan (c), Dinesh Karthik (wk), Shakib Al Hasan/Andre Russell, Sunil Narine, Lockie Ferguson, Shivam Mavi, Varun Chakravarthy
Prediction
CSK have a 17-9 edge over KKR, beating them in four of their last five encounters. In tournament finals, it’s 1-1 head-to-head, with KKR winning IPL 2012 and CSK returning favours in the Champions League T20 in 2014.
Toss will be critical. Though CSK have a more balanced lineup, KKR have had many factors going their way as they are striking close to their third title.
Betway Fantasy tips
- Narine continues to hold the key for KKR as an all-rounder. Now that he has found back his wicket-taking mojo, he’s a good pick for captaincy.
- Chakravarthy has five wickets against CSK at an average of 19, going at just over six an over. He is likely to provide essential points.
- Jadeja averages 39 against KKR, at 139. He will also be an effective bowler in the middle overs.
- Once he hits form, Uthappa usually enchases on it. It would be a safe bet to go for him.
- Thakur’s wicket-taking abilities make him a tempting proposition. And if he’s promoted as a batter again and he goes on to repeat his England heroics, he can fetch a bucketful of points.
Blitzpools Fantasy XI
M.S. Dhoni (wk), Ruturaj Gaikwad (vc), Faf du Plessis, Robin Uthappa, Shubman Gill/Rahul Tripathi, Ravindra Jadeja, Sunil Narine (c), Venkatesh Iyer, Lockie Ferguson, Shardul Thakur, Varun Chakravarthy