Cape Town, 2018. Bhuvneshwar Kumar had South Africa reeling inside five overs of the Test at 12/3. Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram and Hashim Amla were back in the pavilion. South Africa had recovered by lunch, adding almost another hundred, thanks to an A.B. de Villiers’ counterattack.
Pundits and fans had wondered whether India had done the right thing by handing a Test cap to a perceived white-ball specialist, Jasprit Bumrah, who leaked runs that day. Then arrived a fuller ball that seamed in at over 140kph, kissed de Villiers’ inside edge and crashed onto the off-stump.
Bumrah opened his account in Test cricket with the master’s wicket. India were right back in the Test match.
Since then, Bumrah has taken another 111 wickets at 22, including seven five-wicket hauls. Over the same period, only Jason Holder and Tim Southee have managed equalled the latter.
Bumrah’s latest five-for came in the venue of his Test debut. It also placed India on the brink of their first-ever Test series win in South Africa.
The Indian bowlers’ dominance at Newlands did not come as a surprise. They got the South African batters to produce false shots at will. With more luck on their side, India’s first-innings lead could have been more than the measly 13.
Unlike the grey skies on Tuesday, Wednesday was reasonably bright and blue. There were dropped chances and edges falling shot. And then, there stood Keegan Petersen, ready to pounce on every scoring opportunity. The Test match still hangs in the balance, with India having a slight edge. But now comes the alarming facts.
Since 2020, Indian batters, between Nos. 3 and 6, have averaged 28 in Test cricket. The only side to do worse is West Indies, who have averaged 26.2.
India’s batting problems are compounded by the form of Virat Kohli, Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane. They have collectively managed a solitary century in the 99 completed innings in the last two years. All three average in the mid-20s.
In the meantime, India’s bowling attack (spin at home, pace overseas) has covered up for the middle-order. Despite the batting struggles, they have managed a run at the No. 1 Test spot. They have won five overseas Test matches (two in each of Australia and England; and one in South Africa). Yet again, they look favourites to enter the World Test Championship final.
And in the ongoing Cape Town Test, India’s fortunes primarily hang on the show of their once much-famed middle-order.
Kohli (79) and Pujara (43) contributed to 122 runs in India’s first-innings total of 223. They have now added 33 in the second-innings total of 57/2. With time not a factor, the more they stretch their partnership, the more India’s chances to win the series.
Rahane, next man in, averages 21 since 2021. At six, there’s Rishabh Pant, someone who had contrasting halves to his Test career starting last year. He averaged 56 in the first seven Test matches of the year, but since the England series, the average dropped to 19 in the subsequent seven Tests.
R. Ashwin and Shardul Thakur: two men capable of cameos and surprises, are next. They may come up with pleasant bonuses, but to expect them to produce match-defining innings against Kagiso Rabada & co. on this pitch is a stretch.
India's chances mostly depend on how long the Kohli-Pujara stand lasts today. They are ahead by 70. Another 170 can get the target to 240, something Elgar & co. chased down at a more challenging surface at the Wanderers – though, on that occasion, India missed one of their three genuine fast bowlers.
To get more, the middle order will have to pull off a feat that they have not done in recent times.
If Kohli can recraft the first-innings mastery against Rabada’s brilliance and Pujara can take a leaf out of his Australia heroics, India will surely be well placed.