England's decisive 20-run victory against New Zealand at The Gabba on Tuesday has preserved their chances of qualifying for the semi-finals and created an intriguing competition to go to the last four stage, where the top two finishers in Group 1 may be determined by net run rate.
Table-toppers New Zealand, England, and third-placed Australia are now locked on five points apiece. Only net run rate separates the three clubs, who each have one game remaining in Group 1. There is no Group 1 participant who has officially qualified for the semi-finals.
New Zealand is in first place.
Thanks to their outstanding net run rate of +2.233, which was set up by that 89-run thrashing of Australia in their opening game at Sydney Cricket Ground, Group 1 champions New Zealand hold the advantage over other qualification competitors.
The Black Caps' net run rate is almost as good as a point, giving them a significant advantage in the race for qualifying. To offer Australia and England the chance to defeat the Kiwis and prevent them from finishing in the top two, the Kiwis would need to lose to Ireland in their final game at Adelaide Oval and by a big margin.
So how did the Group 1 matches fare in the end?
It will come down to net run rate to determine the top two slots if all three of New Zealand, England, and Australia win their remaining matches against Ireland, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan, respectively.
Australia's net run rate of -0.304 puts them in last place in the race, but Aaron Finch's team plays a day before England, so they can set a precedent and increase the pressure if they manage to defeat Afghanistan at Adelaide Oval on Friday by a significant margin.
As a result of playing on Saturday, England will go into their match against Sri Lanka on Saturday knowing exactly what they need to do to advance. If Australia is unable to overtake England (+0.547) and New Zealand (+2.233) in terms of net run rate, then both of those teams will be aware that a win in their respective last matches—by whatever margin—will advance them to the semifinals.
What about Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Ireland?
Ireland still has a mathematical chance, but it is a narrow one, as they would need two other results to go their way in addition to a significant margin of victory to place in the top two. For Andrew Balbirnie & Co., the main goal will be to place in the top four and earn an automatic berth in the following ICC Men's T20 World Cup.
The 2014 champions, Sri Lanka, have a chance to advance. If the 2021 runners-up New Zealand or the reigning champions Australia lose their final game, a win over 2010 champions England in the group's final game would advance them to the semifinals.
Afghanistan are the first team to be mathematically denied a semi-final spot, with their loss to Sri Lanka on Tuesday leaving them on just two points from four games.