After Day 1, Day 4 of the ICC World Test Championship final, between India and New Zealand at Southampton, was also washed out. A second day’s inactivity pushed the Test match – the culmination of a tournament that lasted two years across five continents – towards a stalemate. As things stand now, New Zealand are slightly ahead in the Test match: they are 101/2 after bowling out India for 217.
Where do the teams go from here, if – and when – play resumes? Being the dominant side at this point, the onus will be on New Zealand to take the initiative. If there is no rain, they will require roughly 40-45 overs to go past India’s score. Mind you, it will not be easy. India might not have got wickets, but they have not allowed the New Zealand batters easy runs either.
But New Zealand bat deep, at least up to No. 8, followed by three decent hitters. After weathering the initial storm, they may decide to up the tempo. If they bat until tea – and secure a lead of around 50 – they may declare and have a go at India. It is unlikely for India to win from such a situation. Remember, the umpires have gone off the field multiple times for poor light, so New Zealand will need that extra time. Either way, it is unlikely they will bat beyond tea if they want to enforce a result.
Can India win? They need to bowl out New Zealand quickly, to begin with. A lead of 30-40 runs, or perhaps even fewer, may put them at an advantage. But will they find time to bowl New Zealand again? Given the light conditions over the past few days, that seems unlikely.
There are a maximum of 196 overs of cricket left in the Test match. Theoretically, that is enough to enforce a result. But given the attritional nature of cricket we have had on display, combined with the weather, the chances of a win for either side – especially India – seems bleaker and bleaker with every passing hour.